1.Ukubuka konke

Imboni yedijithali ye-3C (Computer, Communications, and Consumer Electronics) iyaqhubeka nokuba namashifu aguquguqukayo entengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe, eqhutshwa ukulungiswa kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke, intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, ukungezwani kwezwe, kanye nesidingo esishintshayo. Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2025, izinto ezibalulekile ezifana nama-semiconductors, izakhi zomhlaba eziyivelakancane, i-lithium, ithusi, namapulasitiki wobunjiniyela zibona ukuthambekela kwamanani okuhlukahlukene okuba nomthelela omkhulu ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza namasu entengo yomkhiqizo.

2.Key Raw Materials kanye Namanani Amathrendi

2.1 Ama-semiconductors

• Ithrendi yamanje: Ukuzinzisa ngemva kokuguquguquka kwangemva kobhubhane.
• I-Price Movement: Ukwehla okumaphakathi kwezintengo zama-chips ama-node akhulile (isb., 28nm nangaphezulu), kuyilapho ama-semiconductors e-Advanced-node (isb., 3nm, 2nm) ahlala ephezulu ngenxa ye-产能 elinganiselwe kanye nezindleko eziphezulu ze-R&D.
• Abashayeli: Umthamo owengeziwe ovela ezisekelweni ezinkulu (i-TSMC, i-Samsung, i-Intel) idambise ukushoda, kodwa imikhawulo yobuchwepheshe yase-U.S.-China iyaqhubeka nokuba nomthelela wamaketanga okuhlinzeka, ikakhulukazi kuma-chips ekhompyutha asebenza kahle.
• Okuzayo: Izintengo okulindeleke ukuthi zihlale zizinzile ngo-2025, nengcindezi ekhuphukayo kancane uma isidingo sikhuphuka nge-AI.

2.2 Izakhi Zomhlaba Ezingavamile (REEs)

• Izakhi Eziyinhloko: I-Neodymium, i-praseodymium, i-dysprosium (isetshenziswa kozibuthe abasebenza kahle kakhulu bezinjini nezipikha).
• I-Price Movement: Ukwenyuka okuncane (5–8% YoY), okuqhutshwa izilawuli zokuthekelisa zase-China kanye nesidingo esikhulayo sezingxenye ezincane, ezisebenza kahle kakhulu.
• Abashayeli: Izingxabano zezwe kanye nokubusa kwe-China ekucubunguleni i-REE (amasheya omhlaba angaphezu kuka-85%) kuholele ekukhathazekeni kokuhlinzeka.
• Okuzayo: Izintengo zingase zikhuphuke kakhulu uma amanye amaketanga okunikezela (isb., Australia, USA) ehluleka ukukhuphuka ngokushesha.

2.3 Izinto ze-Lithium nebhethri

• I-Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide: Izintengo zehle ngo-~30% ukusuka eziqongweni eziphakeme zango-2023 ngenxa yokutholakala ngokweqile kanye nokunciphisa ukukhula kwesidingo se-EV.
• I-Cobalt ne-Nickel: Ukwehla okumaphakathi ngenxa yokukhishwa kwezimayini okuthuthukisiwe nemizamo yokugaywa kabusha.
• Umthelela ku-3C: Izindleko zebhethri eziphansi zizuzisa abakhiqizi be-smartphone, ithebhulethi, kanye nekhompyutha ephathekayo, ukuthuthukisa amandla emajini.
• Okuzayo: Izinzile ekwehleni kancane ngo-2025, ngaphandle uma ubuchwepheshe obusha (isb., amabhethri esimo esiqinile) buphazamisa ukufunwa.

2.4 Ithusi ne-Aluminium

• Ithusi: Izintengo zihlala ziphakeme (~$8,200/ton) ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla esivela kungqalasizinda ye-AI, ukuthunyelwa kwe-5G, nokuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo.
• I-Aluminium: Ukukhuphuka okumaphakathi (3–5%) ngenxa yezindleko zamandla kanye nemithethonqubo yokusimama.
• Sebenzisa ku-3C: Osinki okushisa, izixhumi, izindlu, nama-PCB.
• Okuzayo: Iyaguquguquka kodwa ngokuvamile iphakama ngenxa yesidingo sobuchwepheshe obuluhlaza.

2.5 Ipulasitiki yobunjiniyela namaPolymers

• Izinto zokwakha: Polycarbonate (PC), Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS), Polyamide (PA).
• Isitayela senani: Ukwehla kancane ngenxa yezintengo zikawoyela ongahluziwe ezinzile kanye nokutholakala ngokweqile e-Asia.
• Abashayeli: Izindleko eziphansi ze-petrochemical feedstock kanye nokukhuphuka kokugaywa kabusha emkhakheni wezogesi.
• Ukusimama Inothi: Isidingo samapulasitiki asuselwa kuzinto eziphilayo kanye nesenziwe kabusha siyenyuka, okungenzeka sibe nomthelela entengo yesikhathi eside.

3.Supply Chain kanye namathonya e-Geopolitical

• I-S.-China Trade Tensions: Imikhawulo eqhubekayo yobuchwepheshe kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla engavuthiwe kuhlela kabusha amasu okuthola usizo. Izinkampani ziyahlukahluka ukuya eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eNdiya naseMexico.
• Izilawuli Zokuthekelisa: Imikhawulo yase-China ku-gallium, i-germanium, ne-graphite inyuse izindleko zezingxenye ze-RF nama-anode ebhethri.
• Logistics: Izindleko zokuthumela zenze isimo sangemva kobhubhane, kodwa ukuphazamiseka kwesifunda (isb., inkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu) kubangela ukubambezeleka okuncane kanye nokushintshashintsha kwezindleko.

4.Abashayeli Bezobuchwepheshe Nezimakethe

• I-AI ne-Edge Computing: Isidingo sokushayela sama-chips asebenza kakhulu nezinto zokupholisa ezithuthukisiwe (isb., i-graphene, izinto ezisetshenziswayo zensimbi ewuketshezi ezishisayo).
• I-Miniaturization: Ukwenyuka kokusetshenziswa kwezinto ezixhumene ne-high-density interconnect (HDI) nama-PCB substrates aguquguqukayo, okuthinta isidingo samapholima akhethekile namafoil ethusi.
• Imithethonqubo Yokusimama: I-Green Deal ye-EU kanye nemigomo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni yaseChina iphushela abakhiqizi ezintweni ezigaywe kabusha namaketanga okuhlinzeka ngekhabhoni ephansi, okuthonya izakhiwo zezindleko zesikhathi eside.

5.Isibikezelo senani sango-2025

6.Izincomo zamasu

• Diversify Supply Chains: Yehlisa ukuncika ezifundeni zomthombo owodwa, ikakhulukazi kuma-REE nama-chips athuthukile.
• Invest in Recycling: Thuthukisa amasistimu avaliwe ezinsimbi namapulasitiki ukuze unciphise ukuntengantenga kwentengo.
• I-Hedge Key Commodities: Sebenzisa ikusasa nezinkontileka zesikhathi eside zethusi, i-lithium, nomhlaba ongavamile.
• Yamukela Ezinye Izinto: Hlola i-graphene, i-aluminium egaywe kabusha, ne-bio-plastiki ukuze uthuthukise ukusimama nokuqina kwezindleko.

7.Isiphetho

Imboni yedijithali ye-3C ngo-2025 ibhekene nesimo sezwe esiyinkimbinkimbi esakhiwe ukuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe, ubungozi bezwe, kanye nezimfuneko zokusimama. Nakuba ezinye izintengo zempahla zizinza noma zehla, ubuthakathaka besu busekhona—ikakhulukazi kumaminerali abalulekile nama-semiconductors athuthukile. Ukuphathwa kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla okusebenzayo, ukutshalwa kwezimali ku-R&D, nokubambelela emigomeni ye-ESG kuzoba ukhiye ekugcineni ukuncintisana kanye nokwenza inzuzo kule ndawo ethuthukayo.

Ilungisiwe ngu: GISENTEC

Isundu: Januwari 2025

Imithombo: BloombergNEF, S&P Global Commodity Insights, CRU Group, IEA, imibiko yezimboni.